Monday, September 08, 2008

NEW state polling from FOX shows good Obama performance in key states after conventions

Fox/Rassmussen just announced some swing state polling today that looks pretty good for Obama after the conventions, DESPITE the McCain lead in the national polls.

Here's what to note:

After the conventions, Obama has IMPROVED his margin over McCain in Colorado. That open-invitation to 80,000 people to attend the Obama speech might not have been such a bad idea after all. As noted before, if Colorado is the ONLY swing state that Obama wins, the election would be a TIE.

Even more interesting: after the conventions and the Palin pick, Obama is now TIED in Florida. Could it be that Sarah Palin's fire-breathing, born-again preacher is turning off older, Jewish voters in this key battleground? As noted before, if Forida is the ONLY swing state Obama wins, he wins the election.

On the downside, the race in Pennsylvania is tighter than it should be. McCain only trails by two points. Obama needs to hold this Kerry/Gore state, but it seems that racism may be a factor here. That's why Biden has been working like the devil in Pennsylvania this week. (However, Obama could still win if he loses Pennsylvania but carries Florida and Colorado.)

And remember, this is all reflecting the Republican convention bounce. In a couple weeks, if history is any judge, that bounce will fade.

If you want to play around with your own state-by-state scenarios, here's a good place to do it.