Wednesday, September 10, 2008

McCain Bounce Fading: Obama Pulls Ahead in Likely Voters

Today Obama pulls one point ahead of McCain in "leaning" voters in the daily Rasmussen poll.

Obama will likely still be behind in the Gallup poll (that's because it's a three-day average so the last two days will be heavily weighted in still.) Plus, Gallup doesn't weight by party ID.

That makes the Rasmussen poll more stable than Gallup, and likely to reflect the fading of the convention bounce first. Baring a major event, Gallup likely won't return Obama to the lead for another week or more.

Sept 14th: See the update to the bounce fade.

No comments: