Sunday, September 14, 2008

McCain's Fading Bounce: Yes, It Will Fade

Three polls out today:

Rasmussen: McCain still up 3, just like yesterday. (Update Sept 15th: now down to just 2 points.)

Gallup: McCain still up 2, just like yesterday.

But today, in the Diego/Hotline poll, Obama is up 2. Admittedly, it's a shaky poll. And yes, no movement in Rasmussen or Gallup today. But Gallup has been slowly moving. And the momentum now is back toward Obama. Remember, the fade takes at least two weeks. We have another week to go.

Once the bounce is gone, we'll be back to a statistical dead tie or slight +1 lead for Obama, which is where we were going into the conventions. But the Electoral map will still favor Obama. If Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico are all tilting towards him next week (and he's got a small advantages even today), he'll be ahead.

Update Sept 15th: bounce still fading. Today's events will keep up the trend. By end of week, we'll a statistical dead tie, maybe even Obama up by 1.

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