Paul Haggis and Crash - continues to get mentions as 2005 "serious" work. Look to see Haggis replace Ron Howard on my director list, possibly take best original screenplay.
Brokeback continues its surge - could it possibly win more Oscars? Nope: my prediction is seven. (The other two are best cinematography, best score).
Kong continues to rack up "feel good" reviews - could Jackson be up for his second directing nom? Maybe even another best picture nom? (To replace Munich?)
Cinderella Man continues its slide into oblivion. The old formula may no longer have any kick, and with Hollywood in a financial slump, there's no forgining a big movie with bad B.O. May not get any noms.
Munich not receiving post-release buzz or audience. Is this thriller too close to reality for audiences? More like homework than escapism: Look to see it fall off the best picture list, possibly w/ Speilburg off director list.
May be replaced by late releases: The New World, or possibly Speilberg alternative, War of Worlds.
Memoirs also tanking; may threaten to take Zhang off best actress win. Who does this help? Maybe Watts, who might surge on a Kong upswing.