Monday, September 08, 2008

Daily Tracking Polls All Over the Place: Huh?

As Nate Silver points out, today's number should reflect McCain's HIGHEST polls, resulting from his post-convention bounce. But these bounces are, by definition, temporary.

Gallup gives McCain a five-point lead today.

Rassmussen gives him a one-point lead today

CNN calls it dead even.

Which is it? Who to believe?

Since Rassmussen tends to lean slightly Republican, I think this might be the most reliable indicator of the McCain bounce: he's pulling about a point or two ahead of Obama. If this reflects a four to six point bounce from the convention, then the theory goes, the race should return to an Obama 2-point lead in a couple of weeks.

Remember: the definition of a bounce is that it's temporary. Don't buy into the "Democrats in trouble" meme. McCain had a successful convention but we're not in trouble...yet. Obama has three weeks to get his numbers back up. Then the debates will decide it all.

1 comment:

All-Mi-T [Thought Crime] Rawdawgbuffalo said...

i just wish they would ask folks do they think either on of these cats should be dicussing
one of our real threats to democracy