As Nate Silver points out, today's number should reflect McCain's HIGHEST polls, resulting from his post-convention bounce. But these bounces are, by definition, temporary.
Gallup gives McCain a five-point lead today.
Rassmussen gives him a one-point lead today.
CNN calls it dead even.
Which is it? Who to believe?
Since Rassmussen tends to lean slightly Republican, I think this might be the most reliable indicator of the McCain bounce: he's pulling about a point or two ahead of Obama. If this reflects a four to six point bounce from the convention, then the theory goes, the race should return to an Obama 2-point lead in a couple of weeks.
Remember: the definition of a bounce is that it's temporary. Don't buy into the "Democrats in trouble" meme. McCain had a successful convention but we're not in trouble...yet. Obama has three weeks to get his numbers back up. Then the debates will decide it all.
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1 comment:
i just wish they would ask folks do they think either on of these cats should be dicussing
one of our real threats to democracy
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