Monday, November 03, 2008

Will Undecideds Cut Against Obama?

Let's say there IS this factor that a lot of undecideds will support McCain, the "I really can't bring myself to vote for the black candidate" factor.

Normally we might divide undecideds 50/50. I don't think this factor would be 90%. But it could be large - let's be very generous and say very large at 80% of the undecideds end up voting for McCain, due to the racial factor, McCain's arguments, however you want to look at it. Well, even if that were the case, here are the results we'd see in the currently close states:

Ohio: McCain 49.96%, Obama 50.04% - winner, Obama by a whisker
Florida: McCain 50.48%, Obama 49.52% - winner, McCain
Virginia: McCain 49.26%, Obama 50.74% - winner, Obama
Nevada: McCain 49%, Obama 51% - winner, Obama

And as noted in the previous post, with Colorado and Pennsylvania already giving Obama more than 50% support, the undecideds wouldn't be a factor there.

So, if you are worried about the undecideds breaking heavily for McCain, even in a very very bad scenario (and let's say McCain even squeaks out Ohio in this), Obama still wins Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Nevada, for an electoral vote of 291 (311 if you add Ohio back in).

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