Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Who Won Biggest Last Night? Nate Silver came out the big winner last night - being closest (along with Rasmussen) in the final popular vote estimate.

The state-by-state polling predictions at fivethirtyeight were also spot on. Only two states deviated: Indiana came in a surprising win for Obama; North Carolina turned a tiny bit closer than Nate predicted. Everything else was pretty exact. He even got the Missouri for McCain by 0.2 exactly right. Florida went slightly bigger for Obama and Virginia slightly less than Nate predicted, but all by margins of a point or less, less than the three point margin of errors in the polls themselves.

That's vindication for his method, if I ever saw it.

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