Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Electoral Vote Prediction

Less than two weeks out, I'm ready to make my prediction for election night.

Surprises? I think Ohio and Florida are most susceptible to McCain's attacks on Obama. Polls will tighten there going into the election, and both will be dramatically close.

But the real surprise is that Obama has redrawn the map, and those two big swing states no longer matter as much as the NEW swing states. Instead, the new swing states are the near south/coast: Virginia/North Carolina, and the new west: Nevada and Colorado. This is the long-term demographic change Obama has helped to usher in. (Missouri, a neighbor of Illinois, will come along for the Obama ride, but this may not be a long-term change.)

But there are 13 days left, and a lot could still change.

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