Friday, October 17, 2008

Conservatives are Giving Up: Are They Premature?

With two and a half weeks to go, some conservatives are already throwing in the towel on the Presidential election.

They are looking at polls like this and this and - both giving Obama over 350 electoral votes - saying it's going to be a landslide.

Are they right? Is the election over? Or all we all just exhausted by the past two years and ready for it to be?

Here's what I think we should look for over the next two weeks:

An endorsement from Powell on Sunday and results from the last debate will work their way into the polls, giving Obama another mini-bump to an average 7 - 8 point lead.

Economic news will stay in the forefront, but the shock and awe is probably largely over. Numbers will be bad but everyone knows that. People will be focused on their personal finances, probably more than the race. The lack of attention on the economy after Sunday may allow McCain to drift back up in the polls. He may trim Obama's lead as much as two points, bringing it down to a 4 or 5 point lead going into the last week before the election.

There will be no October surprise (that's my reckless prediction). Haven't we had enough drama? Even if Russia invades Ukrane or Al Queda blows up a market somewhere in Europe, I don't think enough people care more about that than what's happened to the economy that it will make any difference, maybe nothing more than a small one point swing.

On election day Obama will be ahead nationallly by 5 points and maintaining the 350 electoral advantage. Ohio will be close, and on election night, there will be some surprises: he'll lose Ohio, along with West Virginia and Indiana.

But he'll win Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. His margin will be 325 instead of 350, with a four percent advantage in the popular vote. Still large enough to claim the most decisive victory since Clinton.

The markets will rally by 7% the next day. Two weeks later, they'll go below 7500.

1 comment:

beingajoe said...

Wow, you are going out on the limb here with the predictions. Does this mean Sarah Palin goes away finally?