Thursday, August 28, 2008

Obama Bounces!

Here's today's Gallup tracking poll.

He's up by six points today...that's after being down by two points on Tuesday. From Tuesday to today, he's gained eight points.

Compare that to the average convention bounce of five to six points.

And keep in mind that there's a one-day lag on the polling. So this bounce reflects Hillary's speech on Tuesday, but not yet the Clinton/Kerry/Biden trifecta last night (or Obama's speech tonight). The eight point swing seems to be entirely made up of Clinton supporters coming on board.

That means there's upside for Obama to do terrifically better than the average convention bounce. And he's already significantly out-performing Kerry in 2004.

That doesn't mean Obama will keep the bounce - the Republican news will come in a few days, dampening it down. And it will take a couple weeks for everything to wash out in the polls. But we know now that stories about Obama sinking are erroneous: Obama still has the competitive edge, and this convention is helping big-time.

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