Tuesday, August 26, 2008

O-Biden's Negative Bounce

It looks like Biden's actually giving Obama a negative bounce.

It's reasonable to assume, I think, that these are Hillary supporters disappointed that Obama didn't select her. Looks like 1% of the populace is expressing this disappointment, here, switching their vote from Obama to McCain.

The good news in this is it's likely to be temporary. After Michelle Obama's heartfelt speech yesterday (including her tribute line to Hillary), Hillary's strong endorsement (we hope) tonight, and no doubt Biden's attack stance on Wednesday, those numbers will likely recover by the end of the week.

The bad news is it's going to suppress the "convention bounce," particularly going into the Republican convention next week. So if you subtract this two point loss expect by the weekend that Obama will be no more than three, maybe four points ahead. That, to me, would indicate a normal "convention bounce." The MSM, specifically CNN, will no doubt announce this as a "lower than normal convention bounce" but really, they've been awful in terms of interpreting the polls, so who can expect much out of them?

When those Hillary supporters see the Republicans next week, expect them to realize what's at stake and switch back to Obama. So I expect the same result at the Republican convention: a three-to-four point bounce, rather than the normal six.

Call this the Hillary Bounce Dampening Effect.

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