Saturday, May 03, 2008

The End of the Season of Hope

Well, it was a good run while it lasted.

In my last post I explained why I changed from a Clinton supporter to voter for Obama. Though I'm still convinced that Obama would be the kind of politician that could accomplish the real reform the country needs, I think I now must officially relinquish my mantle of hope: for looking at today's polls, I think the Obama candidacy is done. If the polls are correct, Obama is sinking fast in Indiana, and will be lucky now to just eek out a victory in North Carolina.

It's a significant reversal of fortune. Clinton won't secure the nom via the popular vote. But with no joy for Obama after North Carolina, the SuperDels who've been sitting on the sidelines will have little compunction about handing a very tight race over to Clinton after the voting concludes. I might personally wish there were a way for them to do this by brokering some kind of deal to get Obama on as VP and unify the party; unfortunately, the sad reality is there is no single Democrat now in the country with the power to broker such a deal. The SuperDels have no collective wisdom or influence to impart (the fact that the contest has gone on this long to such a detrminent to the party is all the proof we need of that fact). All they have is the individual decision making of a few hundred random people. Those people, however, are professional politicians - one can pretty much bank they have the training to read the writing spelled out by the latest polls, and will, in a kind of final sigh, hand Clinton her win and her mantel. And there's nothing in Clinton's character that would suggest that the first thing she would do is anything other than run as fast as possible from anything that even hints the word 'Obama.'

Yes, Wright was the shot across the bow that swiftly sunk this boat. Obama could have withstood months of pounding on this topic from the right-wing circus. But when the preacher got up on stage and proved to the world he was as unhinged as his detractors said he was, that was all she wrote.

The problem isn't that Obama's denunciation came a 24-hour news cycle too late. The problem is, for those of us who defended Obama admid the constant McCarthyistic accusations (his preacher is a radical; this man's politics of unity is a lie), the fact that Wright turned out to be as loony as the swiftboaters said he was, made all of us into fools, not the least of which, our candidate. Denounce as he might, Obama can't explain away why he didn't see this coming, or why his cracker-jack political team didn't act earlier to defuse the bomb. Either he didn't think Wright's predilection for rhetorical napalming would become as big a problem as it did - which suggests that Obama is potentially more provincial (and perhaps naive) than his stated platforms, a problem that turns him into an inexperienced liberal attempting to mascerade as a moderate (what his opponents mean by "slick"); or he was genuinely surprised by Wright's political suicide bombing, which calls into question his lauded judgement (what his opponents mean by "inexperienced"). Either way, those of us who defended Obama's twenty-year association with Wright as well as his opportunity to have things both ways during his eloquant speech on race, have to wonder now, what the hell was he thinking?

The problem is, I still like Obama. His politics is probably the most refreshing I've seen in years. Yes, using Wright to tar Obama is still McCarthyite tactics. But none of that is Obama's problem now, as he faces "white flight." Obama's problem is that he didn't see last Monday coming. He let a long-time friend and associate get on National TV and completely trash his entire campaign. I think voters can legitimately wonder, well, if Candidate Obama can be blindsided this badly by a friend of twenty years...can we really trust his judgement when he goes out on stage to form friendships with the likes of Putin, Amadinajad, and Kim Jong-Il?

My personal faith in Obama isn't shaken, because I always thought the "better judgement" meme was a load of crap. Obama doesn't have better judgement than Clinton or McCain. None of them know what the future will bring, which no-brainer vote today will seem like cowardace or triangulation tomorrow, or which dictator or President who seems trustworthy will suddenly go off the rails. But Obama has a better approach to policy. His stance against the gas tax holidy shows that. But sensible politics - that's boring. Wright is what's interesting. And as any crack prosecutor will tell you, Obama himself opened the door, by making judgement the central meme of his campaign.

I'm disappointed, sure. I thought, this time, we might actually be able to get somewhere, reverse the sinkhole this country has been falling into for the past eight years. But hey - I never thought Clinton was as bad as her detractors made her out to be, either. Certainly better than McCain. Now the decision rests with just 200 so-called "super" Democrats: if they want to take back the White House after eight years in the wilderness, will they have the audacity to leave behind hope? A tough nut, I grant you. I don't know what I would do, if I were one of them. But whatever they're going to do....they'd be better doing it sooner, rather than later. If the Wright fiasco has taught us anything, it's that.

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